New Yorkers head to the polls tomorrow, November 8, to fill important Federal and State offices, including Congress, Governor, every seat in the State Legislature, State Comptroller, and Attorney General. Democrats in Washington, DC, and Albany—who have been focused on abortion, gun violence, and former President Donald Trump—are worried about President Joe Biden’s dismal poll numbers and the angst about crime and inflation that has been dominating the political conversation.
While Democrats now control both houses of Congress, they could lose control of one or both, which would jeopardize President Biden’s health agenda. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is working hard to hold his party’s razor-thin majority. Meanwhile, Republicans believe they can take back the House, especially after GOP-controlled legislatures across the country drew favorable new district lines and New York’s map became more competitive.
Albany Democrats, despite holding all five statewide positions and the State Legislature, face the same tailwinds as their national counterparts. While polls show a tight race between Governor Kathy Hochul and Rep. Lee Zeldin, Hochul is still considered the favorite. In the Legislature, the only question is whether Democrats will keep their Senate supermajority.
Details on notable races follow. For questions about State races, please contact Andrew Title or Sahar Tirmizi. For questions about Federal races, please contact Jonathan Cooper. GNYHA will report on the results after the elections.
On the Federal front, health care remains on the national ballot. Since the 2020 elections, many health care issues have been top of mind for millions of Americans. An August poll indicated that 55% of voters feel health is a priority issue for the upcoming general elections. Congress remains deeply divided on many health care priorities.
As for the US House of Representatives, Democrats have retained control since 2018. The current composition is 220 Democrats and 212 Republicans, with three vacancies. Republicans must flip five seats currently held by Democrats to win a majority and gain control of the House.
The following Democratic and Republican nominees are running to become Representatives in the next Congress, which will meet from January 2023 to December 2025. GNYHA included Cook Political Report (CPR) ratings, which measure how heavily a district leaned Democratic or Republican in the previous presidential elections compared to the national average.
Long Island North Shore (NY-01 / Huntington, Smithtown, the Hamptons): Lee Zeldin (R) announced he would not seek reelection to the House and is currently running against Kathy Hochul for New York Governor. Nick LaLota (R), a former Village of Amityville Trustee and Suffolk County Commissioner of Elections, faces Suffolk County Legislator Bridget Fleming (D). CPR rating: Lean R / R+3.
Nassau County (NY-03 / Oyster Bay, Great Neck, Mineola): Public relations executive Robert Zimmerman (D) faces George Santos (R), an investment banker. CPR rating: Democratic Toss Up / D+2.
Nassau County (NY-04 / Hempstead, Rockville Centre): Former Town of Hempstead Supervisor Laura Gillen (D) faces Anthony D’Esposito (R), a Town of Hempstead Council Member. CPR rating: Democratic Toss Up / D+5.
Lower Manhattan, parts of Brooklyn (NY-10 / Park Slope, Sunset Park): Dan Goldman (D), who won a crowded Democratic primary in August, is a former assistant US attorney and served as counsel to House Democrats during former President Donald Trump’s first impeachment. Goldman faces Benine Hamdan (R), a partner at an investment firm. CPR rating: Solid D / D+35.
Hudson Valley (NY-17 / Rockland County, Peekskill, Cold Spring): Five-term Representative Sean Patrick Maloney (D), who currently represents the neighboring 18th District, faces State Assembly Member Michael Lawler (R). CPR rating: Democratic Toss Up / D+3.
Hudson Valley (NY-18 / Newburgh, Poughkeepsie, Kingston): Pat Ryan (D), the sitting Representative from the 19th District, won the Democratic nomination for the open seat in the 18th District. Ryan faces State Assembly Member Colin Schmitt (R). CPR rating: Democratic Toss Up / D+1.
Central New York (NY-19 / Binghamton, Ithaca, Hudson): Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) faces attorney and political staffer Josh Riley (D). CPR rating: Toss Up / Even.
Central New York (NY-22 / Syracuse, Utica, Rome, Oneida): Veteran and national defense adviser Francis Conole (D) faces Navy veteran and businessman Brandon Williams (R). CPR rating: Republican Toss Up / D+1.
Buffalo suburbs and Southern Tier (NY-23 / Jamestown, Elmira): State Republican Chair Nick Langworthy (R) faces Max Della Pia (D) in the general election. CPR rating: Solid R / R+12.
The US Senate is currently split 50-50 by party (two independent Senators caucus with Democrats). Thirty-five Senators are up for reelection. Democrats gained control of the Senate in 2020. If Democrats lose a single seat in the Senate this cycle, it will become much more difficult for President Biden to push his legislative agenda through Congress for the rest of his term.
In New York State, Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul is running for her first full term along with Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado. They form a ticket against Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin of Long Island and former New York Police Department Deputy Inspector Alison Esposito. Polls have consistently shown that the race has tightened. Governor Hochul has shifted her campaign messaging in response, addressing issues like public safety, which Rep. Zeldin has used to gain traction.
Attorney General Letitia James (D) is running against commercial litigation attorney Michael Henry (R). Attorney General James, who dropped her primary bid against Governor Hochul to run for reelection, is viewed as a strong favorite.
Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) is running for his fourth full term. He faces Wall Street Veteran Paul Rodriguez (R). Most expect him to easily be reelected.
State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D-Yonkers) and Senate Democrats currently hold a 42-20 majority in the upper chamber, a veto-proof margin. But if Democrats lose just one seat, that dynamic will shift. Republicans are highlighting public safety, inflation, and taxes in battlegrounds like Long Island and the Hudson Valley. Another major factor in this election: new district maps have pitted incumbents against one another and forced candidates to navigate new territory.
Suffolk County (4 / Babylon, Islip): Former State Senator Monica Martinez (D) is running against businesswoman Wendy Rodriguez (R).
Nassau County (5 / Hempstead, Oyster Bay, Hicksville): John Brooks (D), a onetime Republican, faces former Nassau County Legislator Steve Rhoads (R).
Nassau County (6 / Garden City, Rockville Centre): Kevin Thomas (D) is running against police officer James Coll (R) in this redrawn district, which now covers Freeport and Westbury.
Nassau County (7 / North Shore, Great Neck, Oystery Bay): Anna Kaplan (D/WFP), the first former refugee to be elected to the State Legislature, is running against Mineola Mayor Jack Martins (R), who served in the Senate from 2011 to 2016.
Suffolk County (8 / Babylon, Amityville, Massapequa): Senator Alexis Weik (R), who currently holds office in District 3, is favored against John Alberts (D), a former Suffolk County Board of Elections member
Nassau County (9 / Floral Park, Valley Stream, Cedarhurst): Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick (R), a Village of Malverne Trustee with the endorsement of Newsday and the New York Post, faces Bellerose Mayor Kenneth Moore (D/WFP), a former leader of Sheet Metal Workers Union Local 28.
Brooklyn (22 / Borough Park, Sheepshead Bay): Marva Brown (WFP), a Brooklyn Community Board 8 member, is running against Simcha Felder (D/R/Conservative), who currently represents District 17.
Staten Island / Brooklyn (23 / North Shore, Coney Island): Joseph Tirone (R), a Staten Island real-estate broker, is running against Jessica Scarcella-Spanton (D), who previously worked for the Metropolitan Transit Authority and as former Senator Diane Savino’s campaign manager.
Westchester County (37 / White Plains, New Rochelle): Senator Shelley Mayer (D) is running against Frank Murtha (R), a mental health professional, educator, and entrepreneur focused on public safety and the cost of living.
Rockland County (38 / Nyack, Ramapo): Elijah Reichlin-Melnick (D/WFP) faces William Weber Jr. (R), a small business executive and Rockland County Youth Board Member.
Putnam and Dutchess counties (39 / Beacon, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie): Julie Shiroishi (D), Dutchess County Democratic Committee Chair and former chief of staff for Assembly Member Jonathan Jacobson (D-Orange/Ulster), is running against Poughkeepsie Mayor Rob Rolison (R).
Dutchess and Ulster counties (41 / Kingston, New Paltz, Rhinebeck): Michelle Hinchey (D), who currently represents District 46, is running against Sue Serino (R), who currently represents this district.
Putnam and Westchester counties (40 / Peekskill, Ossining, Mount Kisco): Pete Harckham (D/WFP) is seeking reelection. He faces Gina Arena (R), creator of the Foundation for Educating Children with Autism and the Devereux Milwood Learning Center.
Orange County (42 / Woodbury, Middletown): James Skoufis (D/WFP), who currently represents District 39, is running against Monroe Town Board Member Dorey Houle (R).
Cayuga and Onondaga counties (50 / Oswego): John Mannion (D/WFP) faces Rebecca Shiroff (R), a program analyst for the Onondaga County Office of Economic Development.
Cortland and Broome counties (52 / Binghamton, Ithaca): Binghamton City Council Member and educator Lea Webb (D) is running against former two-term Binghamton Mayor Rich David (R).
Erie County (61 / Tonawada, Buffalo, Williamsville): In this unique race between incumbents, Edward Rath III (R), who promises to cut taxes and improve public safety, is running against Sean Ryan (D/WFP), who pledges to address gun violence and protect reproductive rights.
While State Assembly Democrats currently hold 107 of 150 seats in the lower chamber and are all but certain to retain their supermajority, the same warning signs facing other Democrats are worrying Speaker Carl Heastie’s conference. There are fairly few close Assembly races because the new maps drawn by the Legislature in the spring generally favor incumbents.
Staten Island (63 / Bloomfield, Sunnyside): Richmond County Deputy Public Administrator Vincent Argenziano (D) is running against businessman Sam Pirozzolo (R).
Westchester County (90 / Yonkers): Nader Sayegh (D) is running against Yonkers City Council Member Michael Breen (R).
Rockland County (97 / Spring Valley, New Hempstead): Former Spring Valley Trustee Eudson Francois (D) is running against former prosecutor John McGowan (R).
Dutchess and Ulster counties (103 / New Paltz, Kingston, Rhinebeck): Climate organizer and Democratic Socialists of America co-chair Sarahana Shrestha (D) is running against police officer Patrick Sheehan (R).
Monroe and Wayne counties (135 / Fairport, East Rochester): Jen Lunsford (D) faces military veteran Joseph Chenelly (R).